Earl loses strength over Canada

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Once a hurricane, Earl has lost energy and its tropical-storm punch over Canada, according to U.S. government forecasters.

On Sunday, the center of the storm was 180 miles southwest of Mary’s Harbour in Labrador, with sustained winds of 65 miles an hour and moving north-northeast at 46 miles an hour, the National Hurricane Center said. That course would take it back out to sea in the Atlantic.

Earl had threatened the U.S. East Coast earlier in the week, but ultimately caused little damage. On Saturday made landfall in southern Nova Scotia, hitting Halifax with strong winds and rain. One man died after falling out of his boat in Nova Scotia while almost 1e million were without power in the region, according to wire service reports.

The Atlantic Basin where Earl originated remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to a seasonal outlook issued Sunday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” Jane Lubchenco, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, wrote in the statement.

From June 1 to Nov. 30, NOAA projected, with a 70% probability, 14 to 20 named storms and between eight to 12 hurricanes.

On Sunday, the hurricane center the tropical depression known as Gaston is in the Atlantic about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west at 15 miles an hour. There is an 80% chance that Gaston could redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said.

In the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center said there is a 60% chance of a low-pressure system developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours before the system, which is moving northwest at 5-10 mph, comes ashore.

Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.

Earl loses strength over Canada

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Outside the Box: Germany: Europe’s new superstar

By Howard Gold

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Mention Old Europe and you’ll probably think of small, cobblestone streets, old buildings, wonderful museums — and stagnant economies.

In fact, “becoming like Europe” is for many Americans the worst possible thing that could happen to our country.

But at least one European nation has been posting astonishing growth numbers, easily outdistancing our own. Its top-notch exports have been booming, especially in China, the world’s dynamo, where its brands are highly desired.

Asia’s Week Ahead: Bank of Japan addresses the yen

The Bank of Japan is set to take center stage in the coming week as it looks at revised GDP and machinery orders in order to determine how to address the rising yen. MarketWatch’s Chris Oliver reports.

And its unemployment rate, at 7.3% in June, is more than two full percentage points below ours and about in line with that of Canada, our prosperous neighbor to the north.

That country, of course, is Germany, which has bounced back strongly from the global recession and financial market meltdown.

Although problems with its banking system linger — as does the threat of another round of the euro zone’s crisis — Germany’s prowess as an export-oriented manufacturer will leave it in a strong competitive position for years, even as its economic performance becomes more “normal.”

Carsten Brzeski, an economist with ING in Brussels, told the U.K.’s Daily Mail that Germany’s economy was in a “league of its own.”

German GDP grew at 2.2% in the second quarter. In the U.S., that figure was recently revised downward to 1.6%, about halfway between that of Germany and the U.K.’s 1.1%.

So, why is Germany doing so well? A focus on its competitive strengths, a government stimulus program that worked, and the world economy’s big bounce back from the abyss.

Because as good as the second quarter of 2010 was, that was how bad its first quarter of 2009 was. Germany’s GDP plunged 3.5% then, as the world seemed on the verge of another Great Depression.

But the German government swung into action. Germany’s bold plan included a 480 billion euro bailout of German banks, 115 billion euros for troubled companies, and 80 billion euros worth of domestic stimulus.

There were plenty of “bridges to nowhere” in it — millions of euros going to crazy projects like stud farms and a museum of hunting weapons. But two things worked well: Germany’s own “cash for clunkers” plan, which boosted auto sales and helped domestic parts suppliers; and a particularly effective program that encouraged companies to reduce workers’ hours, but not lay them off.

The basis for the “short-time” working system, “has existed in German social legislation for decades,” wrote Der Spiegel.

“When companies experience sharp declines in sales, they are permitted to reduce their employees’ working hours, and the government offsets a portion of the costs. The goal is to avoid layoffs and retain employees until the recession is over.”

The program was wildly successful: It allowed 1.5 million workers to keep their jobs at reduced hours — and continue to spend money — while keeping in place the workforce that would allow companies to gear up quickly once the economy bounced back.

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Outside the Box: Germany: Europe’s new superstar

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Bond Report: Treasurys drop after ISM, jobs data

By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices dropped Wednesday, pushing yields up for the first session in three, after a report showed the manufacturing sector in the U.S. improved in August.

Adding to a U.S. report on private-sector employment and strong economic data from China and Australia, the news eased concerns about the outlook for global growth.

Yields on 10-year notes
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y
(UST10Y
2.58,
+0.11,
+4.37%)
, which move inversely to prices, rose 11 basis points to 2.58%. A basis point is 0.01%.

Last week, the benchmark security’s yield touched the lowest level since January 2009.

Yields on 2-year notes
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust2yr
(UST2YR
0.51,
+0.03,
+5.87%)
increased 3 basis points to 0.51%, after touching an all-time low last week.

Yields on 30-year bonds
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust30y
(UST30Y
3.65,
+0.14,
+3.84%)
jumped 14 basis points to 3.66%.

The rise in yields Wednesday erased much of the gains in the previous two sessions which helped Treasurys of all maturities return 2.05% in August, the best gain in a month since December 2008, according to an index compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Stocks rallied on Wednesday, reducing investors’ interest in the relative safety of U.S. debt. The S&P 500 Index
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx
(SPX
1,078,
+28.38,
+2.70%)
jumped about 2.8% in afternoon trading.
Read about U.S. stocks.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index on manufacturing activity rose to 56.3 in August from 55.5 in July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to slide to 53.2.
Read about ISM.

The report also has an employment component that improved, raising optimism about the government’s monthly employment report being released Friday, said strategists at CRT Capital Group.

“The Treasury market sold off sharply in the wake of the data,” CRT’s David Ader and Ian Lyngen wrote in a note.

ADP said that private employers in the U.S cut 10,000 jobs in August. The ADP report on private employers comes two days before the Labor Department’s much more closely followed nonfarm-payrolls report, which includes government workers.
See more on ADP.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for an overall decline of 105,000, including an expected increase of 25,000 jobs in the private sector.

Many analysts had expected ADP to show a slightly positive number, according to CRT. ADP tends to underestimate private payroll growth — as determined by the Labor Department report — by 65,000, they said.
Read about the ADP data.

Therefore, Wednesday’s ADP report implies that Friday’s data will show that companies added 55,000 workers, which would be better than the current forecast.

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Bond Report: Treasurys drop after ISM, jobs data

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Jitters behind likely pick-up in August sales

By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Compared against year-earlier sales declines, retailers will likely report a pick-up in August sales, driven by back-to-school shopping for apparel and electronics and the addition of tax-free holidays in states including Florida and Illinois.

Still, plenty of worries trail the expected headline numbers.

Analysts’ descriptions of how the month may have turned out included “It’s going to be ugly,” “A mixed bag” and “Mediocrity remains in focus.”

Many cited concerns about the persistently high unemployment rate, the still fragile housing market, a volatile stock market, and the unusually hot weather on the East Coast that likely led to a pause in spending or delays in purchases of jeans and other fall-weather merchandise.

A Discover U.S. Spending Monitor survey released Wednesday showed while more consumers feel the economy is getting better, the number of consumers rating their personal finances as poor reached a six-month high in August.

Retailers from J.C. Penney Co.
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(JCP
20.59,
+0.61,
+3.07%)
and Kohl’s Corp. to Aeropostale Inc.
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(ARO
21.80,
+0.50,
+2.35%)
and American Eagle Outfitters Inc.
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(AEO
12.91,
+0.27,
+2.14%)
have cut their third-quarter forecasts or given a projection that may fall short of Wall Street expectations. Caution was echoed by retailers across the board.

So far, most eyes are on September to better gauge the consumer mood and how back-to-school selling season, the industry’s second-biggest period and a barometer for the following holiday season sales, will turn out after weather returns to a more normal pattern, analysts said. According to Weather Trends International, August was the hottest in 15 years and driest in 4 years, denting back-to-school and early fall merchandise sales.
Retailers’ new focus: what you want to wear now.

“The days leading up to and after Labor Day will be crucial to the season,” said BMO Capital Markets analyst Wayne Hood.

He said he’s keeping a “watchful eye” on the inventory of retailers including J. C. Penney., Nordstrom Inc.
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(JWN
30.01,
+1.09,
+3.77%)
, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!wmt/quotes/nls/wmt
(WMT
51.30,
+1.16,
+2.31%)
and J. Crew Group Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!jcg/quotes/nls/jcg
(JCG
31.86,
+1.37,
+4.49%)
after their stock level coming out of the second quarter has increased at a faster rate than their sales growth. Excess inventory leads to profit-eroding discounts.

“August results will not be strong enough to build investor confidence in the consumer,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Bill Dreher. “Until we get clarity — it’s an expectations game. Inventory risk builds.”

Winners and losers

Overall, retailers are expected to post a 2.8% increase in August, compared with a 2.3% decline a year earlier, according to Retail Metrics. Discounters, excluding Wal-Mart, will likely outpace with a 3.7% increase with consumers seeking bargains in one-stop shopping , analysts said. Department stores also are expected to outperform with a 3.2% gain.

Lagging the industry performance, apparel retailers are estimated to post a 2.3% increase, followed by teen apparel retailers’ 1.7% gain, Retail Metrics data showed.

Among expected winners in different segments, Limited Brands Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!ltd/quotes/nls/ltd
(LTD
24.32,
+0.72,
+3.03%)
, parent of Victoria’s Secret, likely outperformed in the apparel segment with a 7% increase. Teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
/quotes/comstock/13*!anf/quotes/nls/anf
(ANF
36.69,
+2.09,
+6.04%)
is expected to be a bright spot in its group with a 5.8% estimated gain.

In the department-store sector, Nordstrom, Saks Inc.
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(SKS
7.34,
-0.56,
-7.06%)
and Macy’s Inc.
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(M
20.11,
+0.70,
+3.61%)
are expected to outperform their lower-priced rivals J.C. Penney, Sears Holdings Corp.
/quotes/comstock/15*!shld/quotes/nls/shld
(SHLD
64.40,
+2.44,
+3.94%)
and Kohl’s ., Retail Metrics data showed. Costco Wholesale Corp.
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(COST
57.74,
+1.24,
+2.19%)
, in the discount sector, is expected to be among the standouts with a 4.4% increase.

Wal-Mart no longer reports monthly sales.

As an indicator of how sales may have turned out, MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, which estimates total U.S. retail sales across all payment forms including cards, cash and checks, said on Wednesday that sales trends for August have been more towards “remaining stable and flat rather than towards growth.”

Consumer electronics rose 2.3% while appliances category jumped 9.4%, the MasterCard data indicated. While those categories have been helped by the back-to-school shopping, the data showed some clothing spending could be pushed into September as parents delay buying colder weather merchandise until the weather gets cooler.

The MasterCard data also showed the luxury sector’s momentum may be slowing down as it was hurt by the continued volatile financial markets. J.P. Morgan analyst Charles Grom on Wednesday cut his rating on Saks in part on concern that volatility in the equity market and any Wall Street payroll cuts will hurt demand from the high-end shopping group.

Even online sales have seen some slowdown. Their sales rose 7.2% in August, their smallest growth this year, MasterCard said.

Andria Cheng is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

Jitters behind likely pick-up in August sales

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Peter Brimelow: Baby-boomer bull gets belligerent

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A brave Baby Boomer bull isn’t broken yet. But he’s getting belligerent.

I called it “the Michael Murphy miracle” when the long-time, market-scarred veteran editor of the tech-oriented New World Investor enjoyed a recent remarkable resurrection. (
See Sept. 10, 2009, column.) Murphy doubled up by calling for a V-shaped economic recovery — which at one point, this may be hard to remember, looked pretty prescient. (
See Jan. 8 column.)

Murphy’s momentum has slowed since then, but overall it’s still impressive. Over the year to date through July, New World Investor is up 1% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, compared to 0.7% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Not great — but not disastrous either.

And over the past 12 months, New World Investor is up an impressive 47.64%, versus 14.86% for the total return Wilshire 5000. Even better, over the past three years, the letter is up 9.45% annualized against negative 6.23% annualized for the total return Wilshire. And over the past five years, it’s up an annualized 9.81%, as compared to just 0.25% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.

But Murphy’s checkered past is evident in the longer run. Over the past 10 years, the letter was down an annualized 5.45%, compared to a (pretty lousy) 0.10% annualized gain for the total return Wilshire 5000.

I don’t see much talk of a V-shaped recovery in Murphy’s recent posts, and he has repeatedly grasped vainly at signs of a market rebound. But he puts his faith squarely on what looks like an extremely unpleasant inflation outlook.

He writes: “Bernanke is watching the 10-year note yield like a hawk. Bernanke has no intention of letting the economy slide into another recession. In an economy that uses a fiat currency issued by their central bank, there is never a reason to take a recession / depression / deflation other than by choice, unless the central bank has lost control in a hyperinflation first.”

“Rule No. 1 of investing is: Don’t Bet Against the Fed! Rule No. 2 is: Don’t Forget Rule No. 1!”

Murphy also puts a lot of effort into analysis of individual tech situations. He wrote recently: “It is a great year for technology, with rapid growth in mobile, cloud computing and social networking. This is a target-rich environment for anyone to find stocks to buy, from Intel Corp.
/quotes/comstock/15*!intc/quotes/nls/intc
(INTC
18.91,
+0.01,
+0.05%)
and Cisco Systems Inc.
/quotes/comstock/15*!csco/quotes/nls/csco
(CSCO
22.23,
+0.01,
+0.05%)
for the giant pension funds, down to QuickLogic Corp.
/quotes/comstock/15*!quik/quotes/nls/quik
(QUIK
3.51,
0.00,
0.00%)
and Towerstream Corp.
/quotes/comstock/15*!twer/quotes/nls/twer
(TWER
1.66,
0.00,
0.00%)
for us. This Fourth Wave of technology growth, as I have labeled it, is happening all over the world. Asia has long since put the recession behind it and is spending tons of money on technology, with lots of it finding its way to the Intels, Ciscos and QuickLogics of the world.”

Somewhat out of character, Murphy has also emerged as a China skeptic — especially interesting to me because I’ve been crabbing about China throughout its great bull market. (
See Feb. 11, 2007, column.)

Murphy wrote recently about Chinese real estate: “The bubble has already burst. The fallout is going to be awesome, especially in a society that values ‘face’ above almost everything else. The speculators can’t sell and can’t pay the loan sharks. The loan sharks not only can’t pay the interest they promised, but the principal is gone.”

“Many Chinese borrowed against the increased value of their houses to flip the proceeds into a loan-shark pool at 30%, and have been living off the income. A schoolteacher who bought a house five years ago and was sitting on a quadruple was awfully tempted to pull out equity and put it into loan-shark pools, where it threw off an annual income three or four times a teacher’s salary. But now the income is gone, their capital is gone, and they owe the bank more than their house is worth in a falling market.”

“It’s not missiles and nukes like Iran, but it could be a bigger deal to the world economy.”

Peter Brimelow: Baby-boomer bull gets belligerent

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Nick Godt’s Market Medics: Bonds aren’t the new tech bubble

By Nick Godt, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Can you feel that rush of excitement towards bonds?

Pundits excitedly talk of ever rising bond prices on TV, cab drivers now offer tips on bonds, and in hip circles where trendmakers gather, the merits of different bonds are being discussed over expensive cocktails.

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UST10Y
2.62,
0.00,
0.00%



/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx

SPX
1,072,
-3.94,
-0.37%


You can get them in different sizes, colors and shapes: Government, corporates, international, emerging markets, or municipal — you can’t go wrong. They’ll all be going up for ever and ever!

If so many people were in fact talking about bonds that way, we would in fact be having a bubble on our hands.

But they’re not.

Most of the noise about it comes from investment circles deploring the lack of interest from retail investors for stocks and other riskier assets and looking in astonishment at how much has been going out of equities and into bond funds.

Between 1998 and 2000, at the height of the technology bubble, roughly $740 million a day of U.S. retail money went into tech stocks, according to TrimTabs Research, a firm that track investment flows.

By comparison, over the past 20 months, U.S. money has been pouring into bond funds at an average rate of roughly $1.5 billion per day.

That is enough to make anybody’s head spin, but especially those of money managers who’ve either missed the boat or who’ve tried to persuade retail investors that better investments were to be found elsewhere.

Hence, the new spin making the rounds whereby bond valuations are way overstretched, just like tech stocks were in the late 1990s.

If we were to look at a flat world with no context, where only historical returns, charts, and other marketing tools of investment professionals mattered, the bond-bubble argument might make some sense.

But the fact is that since 2008, the world has experienced — and is still in the throes of — its worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s.

In the U.S., baby boomers counting on stock-market gains for their retirement have seen stocks fall more than 50% from peak to trough twice over the past 10 years: Most aren’t taken any more chances.

As noted by Dave Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, with the average baby-boomer now aged 55 and average portfolios still overly tilted towards equities — at 27% for stocks versus 6% for fixed-income — we might be witnessing a “powerful demographic trend” that may turn into “a secular shift.”

Boomers are “moving to correct this mismatch on their balance sheet and adjusting it to capture more income, limit their risks and preserve their capital,” Rosenberg wrote on Thursday.

The recovery in the economy and in stocks throughout last year wasn’t enough to reverse the trend.

And they’re right!

Bonds have generated an overall return of 13% over the past two years compared to negative 21% for equities, according to Gluskin Sheff.

And there is certainly no reason for the trend to reverse in 2010: First, there was the European crisis earlier this year and now over the past few months, an increasingly worrying slowdown in the U.S. economy, where already massive unemployment is again increasing, while risks of deflation are rising by the day.

Talk of a bond-bubble have re-appeared just as Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are plumbing historical lows.

Yields on 2-year notes
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust2yr
(UST2YR
0.50,
0.00,
0.00%)
, which fall along with expectations for interest rates, are at record lows while those on 10-year notes
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y
(UST10Y
2.62,
0.00,
0.00%)
, which reflect inflation expectations, slumped to their lowest since March 2009.

If anything, it’s stocks that are only just recently catching up to that reality, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
(DJIA
10,214,
-57.59,
-0.56%)
and the S&P 500 index
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx
(SPX
1,072,
-3.94,
-0.37%)
now down for the second consecutive week.

Nick Godt is MarketWatch’s markets editor, based in New York.

Nick Godt’s Market Medics: Bonds aren’t the new tech bubble

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Kathleen Madigan: Job mismatch stymies economic growth

By Kathleen Madigan

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: maintain stable prices and enable the economy to reach full employment. Officials are growing more worried that they can do little to achieve the latter half of their responsibilities.

That’s because structural — not cyclical — forces are behind a substantial chunk of the current unemployment in the U.S.

That was a point made Tuesday by Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Fed bank of Minneapolis, in a speech given in Michigan. By his count, about one-third of the joblessness comes from a mismatch between the skills needed and the workers available.

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He said from 2000 until mid-2008 there was a stable relationship between the rate of job openings in the labor market and unemployment. Since then, however, the link has broken down. If the past stable relationship still held, Kocherlakota estimated “we would have an unemployment rate of closer to 6.5%, not 9.5%.”

That works out to 4.6 million unemployed who either live in the wrong place or have the wrong skills or experience to get the jobs now becoming available.

Past Fed minutes show other officials are worried about the long-term unemployment and how skills erode the longer a person is out of work, in essence making them unemployable even when the economy picks up. That implies the natural rate of unemployment — always difficult to estimate — is probably higher than most economists and Fed researchers think.

Solving the job-skill gap is out of the Fed’s purview. As Kocherlakota said, “The Fed does not have the means to transform construction workers into manufacturing workers.”

The Fed can use monetary policy to combat cyclical forces and pump up overall demand, but monetary levers are ineffective when jobs are lost because industries become obsolete (buggy-whip makers) or are overtaken by innovation (phone operators).

Instead, whip makers and operators need retraining to find the new skills needed by growing industries. Retraining satisfies two economic requisites: businesses’ need for skilled, productive labor and consumers’ need for jobs and income.

The onus to achieve that goal falls not on the Fed but on the rest of the government. Congress and the White House could shift some of the still-unspent stimulus money into more retraining programs, especially for workers whose past jobs are never returning. They numbered 6.5 million in July, accounting for 45% of all unemployed workers.

The mismatch between jobs and skills was exacerbated by the recession, but it will not go away even when an expansion is firmly in place.

A study done by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce projects that by 2018, the U.S. economy will need 22 million new college degrees — but will fall short of that number by at least 3 million. The study also projected the economy will need at least 4.7 million new workers with professional certificates or licenses.

“At a time when every job is precious, this shortfall will mean lost economic opportunity for millions of American workers,” the study said.

That’s why action is needed now. Washington policymakers must recognize that low rates alone won’t solve the jobless problem.

Kathleen Madigan
is the primary author of the Big Picture column. This column originally appeared on Dow Jones Newswires.

Kathleen Madigan: Job mismatch stymies economic growth

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Therese Poletti’s Tech Tales: H-P culture crumbled further under Hurd

By Therese Poletti, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The drama and mystery surrounding Mark Hurd’s abrupt departure as chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co. have shined an unflattering light on the company as we learn how he really changed H-P.

Wall Street loved his obsession with cutting costs, but employees did not. He brought even more major changes to the company’s once paternalistic culture, much like his predecessor Carly Fiorina, who pretty much killed the old H-P Way.

With Hurd at the helm, H-P
/quotes/comstock/13*!hpq/quotes/nls/hpq
(HPQ
41.36,
+0.54,
+1.32%)
became an even tougher place to work, with even less emphasis on innovating anything new.

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Verizon Communications demonstrated Wednesday a working iPad app that shows live TV on the Apple device – as long as you’re a Verizon Fios TV subscriber in your home. WSJ’s Sam Schechner has details.

Some former and current employees said that under Hurd, H-P’s once collegial workplace has changed again for the worse.

“He was profane, a bully, autocratic, threatening, demeaning, vindictive, and rude,” wrote Chuck House, a veteran of H-P, in his blog. House is now executive director of Media X, a Stanford University industry affiliate research program on media and technology, and co-author of a 2009 book, “The H-P Phenomenon.”

“Now we have people who are taking their lead from Hurd, who was supposedly a bastard in meetings and used foul language,” said one long-time current employee who declined to be quoted by name. “Now we have a bunch of screamers and yellers.”

The new H-P Way

That more hostile environment is a drastic shift from the H-P Way, which, granted, had its own problems. One facet of the company’s old culture was management by consensus, where everyone involved in a project had to agree.

Employees have described the old approach as similar to a jury, if one person decided a product was not ready because of some small issue, it was held up. This could lead to product delays and an inability to make decisions. Fiorina worked on instilling a sense of urgency at H-P, and it was taken further under Hurd, who with his executive recruits made more autocratic decisions at lightening speed.

/quotes/comstock/13*!hpq/quotes/nls/hpq

HPQ
41.36,
+0.54,
+1.32%


But employee morale, it appears, is once again as bad as it was during the Fiorina years. An H-P employee survey in April showed high levels of discontent. According to House in his blog, H-P’s “Voice of the Workplace,” a measure taken every five years, indicated that more than two-third of H-P employees would quit tomorrow if they had an equivalent job offer. “Not a raise, not a promotion, simply an alternative,” House wrote. “That number never used to be in double digits.” See H-P Phenomenon blog here.

“I think the surveys that have been leaked suggest that morale declined sharply under Hurd,” said Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group. “Carly at least was focused on maintaining HP’s image, but Hurd was not and instead focused mostly on the bottom line, to the detriment of the employees. So while Carly clearly cracked the environment, Hurd shattered it.”

Innovation takes a holiday

H-P, which was once a great innovator in Silicon Valley, has also become less focused on creating anything new. Its founders Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard invented the audio oscillator in their famous Palo Alto, Calif. garage, which was used by Walt Disney Studios
/quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis
(DIS
33.91,
+0.15,
+0.44%)
to develop an innovative sound system for the 1940 movie “Fantasia.”

Some of its better-known inventions that affected consumers more directly include inkjet printing technology, the first desktop scientific calculator and first handheld scientific calculator, which eliminated the need for the slide rule.

It is also known for pioneering many innovative management concepts still used today in corporate life, such as profit-sharing for employees, management by walking around and flex-time for workers. Employees used to be proud to work at H-P.

Now, one measure of how H-P has de-emphasized innovation is in its spending on research and development, which dropped over both Hurd’s and Fiorina’s tenures. It sunk to even lower levels under Hurd as a percentage of its growing revenue. In its fiscal 2009 annual report, its last under Hurd, H-P said “We remain committed to innovation as a key element of H-P’s culture.”

The numbers tell a different story. In fiscal 2009, which ended Oct. 31, the company’s R&D budget was only 2.5% of total revenue. For fiscal 2005, Hurd’s first six months at the tech giant, R&D was 4% of revenue. For fiscal 1999, the year Fiorina took over as CEO, research and development was 5.8% of H-P’s total revenue.

Compare H-P’s R&D spending with IBM Corp., its nearest competitor. IBM
/quotes/comstock/13*!ibm/quotes/nls/ibm
(IBM
129.39,
+0.94,
+0.73%)
, still famous for its leading IBM Research, spent 6.1% of revenue on research, development and engineering in 2009, a year in which overall revenue fell.

So while its PC business had a major turnaround under Hurd and Todd Bradley, an executive vice president who is seen as one of the internal front runners for CEO, H-P has yet to launch a tablet or a similar product to compete with Apple Inc.’s
/quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl
(AAPL
253.07,
+1.10,
+0.44%)
popular iPad. That is just one example of the company’s current lack of inventiveness.

Both Fiorina and Hurd turned H-P into a more generic company, more in tune with the current cutthroat times. Once again, Wall Street’s and management’s obsession with meeting quarterly numbers and growing earnings at all costs has wrecked the soul of a great American company.

Therese Poletti is a senior columnist for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Therese Poletti’s Tech Tales: H-P culture crumbled further under Hurd

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Kagan sworn in as Supreme Court justice: reports

By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Elena Kagan, former Harvard Law School dean, was sworn in on Saturday as the 112th U.S. Supreme Court justice, two days after the Senate confirmed her nomination, according to media reports.

The 50-year old Kagan vowed to “do equal right to the poor and to the rich” as she took the oath from Chief Justice John Roberts, Bloomberg News reported.

Kagan joins two other women currently serving on the nine-member court, Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Retired Justice Sandra Day O’Connor was the first woman to serve on the nation’s highest court.

Kagan, who succeeds retired Justice John Paul Stevens, is expected to align with the court’s liberal wing on issues such as abortion, gun rights and campaign finance, the wire service reported.

Andria Cheng is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

Kagan sworn in as Supreme Court justice: reports

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Peter Brimelow: Gold crawls back on physical demand

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold seems to have stemmed its recent summer slide — perhaps vindicating the gold bugs who watch physical demand, primarily from India.

Last week, when I wrote about gold, gloom was (not for the first time) widespread. (
See July 29 column.) Gold had plunged 2.5% in two days to a level last seen in April. The gold-oriented Aden Report was alarmed, suggesting $1,135 and even $1,080 possible. And The Gartman Letter, which is closely read on many professional trading desks, was even contemplating shorting the metal.

(I noted many in the pro-gold camp would — rather nastily — see Gartman’s move as a “reliable reverse indicator.”)

As it happened, that was about the recent low. (Blind luck, of course.) Gold has crawled up some 3% since then, briefly penetrating $1,200 on Wednesday. Can it go further?

Some in the gold camp are saying it does not matter. They are pointing to the dramatic agreed $7.1 billion takeover by Kinross Gold Corp.
/quotes/comstock/13*!kgc/quotes/nls/kgc
(KGC
15.72,
+0.27,
+1.75%)
of the West African gold-mine developer Red Back Mining Inc.
/quotes/comstock/11t!rbi
(CA:RBI
28.05,
+0.60,
+2.19%)
Owners of Red Back have made 700% from the 2008 low.

The point is that once gold gets to a level at which average gold deposits are viable, the discoverers of somewhat better ones make fortunes. So do patient prospectors amongst the junior gold names. It is a great time for what some deride as “rock hounds.”

This is what happened during the circa-$300 plateau in gold that occurred 1993-96, when it was considered a healthy price.

This summer’s gold decline was stopped by an eruption of physical buying from Asia — just as the radical gold bugs I quoted last week expected.

Edel Tully, the UBS gold analyst, noted on Tuesday: “UBS daily sales to India were the second highest recorded this year. Perhaps more important, the five-day moving average of our sales index currently sits at its greatest level since late November 2008.”

Needless to say this has greatly delighted the hard men of the gold world who are gathered around Bill Murphy at the LeMetropoleCafe Web site. I call them the “radical gold bugs.”

It fits exactly with Murphy’s comment last week: “As long as the physical market holds up, it is only a matter of time before gold and silver go back up.”

This group stresses the seasonal demand surge from India, which usually is seen from late August into early next year.

A somewhat different group of gold enthusiasts is greatly excited by indications from China this week that it will permit broader and more flexible activity in the local gold market.

Nevertheless, gold has not healed the enormous technical damage inflicted by this summer’s slide.

The Aden Forecast hotline posted last night equivocates: “Today’s rise in gold is starting to look promising, but it’s too soon to tell. If gold (basis December) now stays above $1,191, it will be stabilizing, but not until gold rises and stays above $1,202 will the decline be over. Below $1,162 means more weakness to come, and gold could then possibly test the major trend near $1,085. Some gold shares are oversold and rising from this level. The PHLX Gold/Silver
/quotes/comstock/10y!i:xau
(XAU
173.91,
+3.66,
+2.15%)
index is in a solid major uptrend above 164. Keep your positions.”

But Dow Theory Letters’ Richard Russell offered a longer perspective in his posting on Wednesday night: “I sense a real battle in the gold market, with the primary bull trend pushing gold higher and the powerful anti-gold elements doing all they can to keep the price of gold down. Obviously, the next round in the gold battle is to move December gold into the $1,300s.”

“Remember the struggle to get gold over $1,000? That battle is forgotten now. It’s been one long brutal war for and against gold. But I have faith in the primary trend. The primary bull trend of gold is more powerful than all of the world’s central banks taken together.”

Peter Brimelow: Gold crawls back on physical demand

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