The ballroom at the Hilton in Altamonte Springs was all but empty when incoming Senate President Mike Haridopolos ventured in to talk to the remaining reporters.
It was not long after Attorney General Bill McCollum, whom Haridopolos supported in the Republican primary for governor, had told supporters that he was still waiting for all the votes to be counted after a bitter fight with health-care executive Rick Scott. But by the time Haridolopos, R-Merritt Island, walked into the ballroom, it was clear that Scott would prevail.
Haridopolos was asked how Scott had defeated McCollum and essentially the entire Republican establishment. He quickly turned to a truckload of television ads Scott had run in a personally funded spending spree unequaled in state politics.
“$60 million is $60 million,” Haridopolos said.
But political observers say it was more than simply the money that propelled Scott across the finish line, despite the opposition of most of the state’s elected GOP leadership, outside organizations like the Florida Chamber of Commerce and a 30-year veteran of the Florida political scene.
“I can’t remember a candidate who took on not only an established candidate but the entire infrastructure of a party – and won,” said Matthew Corrigan, a political science professor at the University of North Florida.
An anti-incumbent wave, a strong message and, yes, the money, all helped Scott pull off what is the most stunning election upset of the political season so far.
“You have to say that his message resonated, you have to talk about the resources he had, you have to talk about the tireless effort he made in the campaign,” said Sen. John Thrasher of St. Augustine, who doubles as chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. While he clashed with Scott over some of the businessman’s campaign ads, Thrasher did not endorse a candidate in the primary.
Not a ‘career politician’
McCollum is only the latest in a line of “career politicians” to go down to defeat in races across the country.
“In a different political environment, his [Scott's] candidacy might not have worked,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida.
But that wasn’t enough, said Lenny Curry, chairman of the Republican Party in Duval County.
“Many of the candidates that are running against incumbents are missing two elements: a message and money,” said Curry, who also did not endorse a candidate. “You’ve got to offer the public more than, ‘Throw the bums out.’”
Still, the anti-incumbency mood in a way might have inoculated Scott against the most serious threat to his campaign: a Medicare fraud scandal at Columbia/HCA, which Scott founded, in which the company ultimately paid the largest fine of its kind in U.S. history. Shortly before the election, questions began emerging about Solantic, a company Scott founded after leaving Columbia, and Scott’s poll numbers started dropping. In the end, he won anyway.
“Voters were more willing to give all of that a pass based on the fact that he is not a career politician, and he is part of the solution rather than the problem,” said Chris Ingram, a Republican political consultant who didn’t work for either campaign.
As recently as the day before the vote, McCollum’s campaign was cautiously optimistic the attorney general would win. While polls were divided, the final Mason-Dixon poll in the state, a bellwether in other elections, gave McCollum the lead.
“I can’t remember when Mason-Dixon’s been wrong in a race,” Corrigan said.
A resonating message
But that poll had been taken before a weekend barrage of advertising attacking McCollum on everything from congressional pay raises during his 20 years in Washington to a seemingly confused position on the Arizona measure cracking down on illegal immigration to ties between McCollum and disgraced former state GOP Chairman Jim Greer – ties, McCollum allies and Thrasher said, that were grossly exaggerated.
“It seems like the McCollum campaign, the last three days or so, just wasn’t as pervasive as the Scott campaign,” Corrigan said.
Scott’s focus on jobs also appeared to pay off. Curry thinks it helped Scott in Northeast Florida. Duval County, the region’s largest county, had an unemployment rate higher than the state rate in July, according to the state’s workforce agency. Scott carried Duval by 17 percentage points.
“Rick Scott talked about jobs, and he had business experience, and I think that resonated with people,” Curry said.
In fact, Scott carried eight of the 10 counties with the highest unemployment rates in the state in July, often by huge margins.
And Scott was quicker in seizing on hot-button issues, like the immigration law and the controversial Islamic center two blocks from the site of the attack on the World Trade Center.
“They were very nimble and quick on the current issues,” Corrigan said.
In the end, a stronger message might have separated Scott from Jeff Greene, the billionaire investor crushed Tuesday by U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Like Scott, Greene had poured millions of dollars of his own fortune into the race. Corrigan also noted that Scott’s on-the-ground network seemed to be more effective than Greene’s.
“Greene just spent money on TV commercials,” he said.
Jewett also noted, admittedly tongue in cheek, that another small factor might have been the difference in the spending.
“Quite frankly, Greene spent a lot of money,” he said, “but he didn’t spend $50 million.”
brandon.larrabee@jacksonville. com, (678) 977-3709
