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By MarketWatch

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

The U.S. stock market is likely to continue pulling risk on and off the table in the days ahead, with another heavy round of earnings reports in store, along will a full slate of data on the economy, employment in particular.
See full story.

How short-selling sleuths spot accounting tricks

As the 2010 second-quarter earnings season wraps up, accounting sleuths are once again scouring the latest reports for disconnects between what company executives are telling investors and what the numbers are saying.
See full story.

Stocks in focus Monday: Humana, NRG, VeriSign

Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trading in Monday’s session are Humana Inc., NRG Energy Inc. and VeriSign Inc.
See full story.

Stocks cheer a benign July; gold, dollar suffer

A modicum of confidence returned to markets in July, as U.S. and European stocks erased losses inked in the frenzy of prior months and investors took heart that slow growth is better than none at all, dumping gold and the U.S. dollar in light of this more sanguine view.
See full story.

U.S. stocks end July with strong gains

Markets stage a late rally to push into the positive ahead of the close, bucking a slowdown in second-quarter economic growth.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Rambus Inc. investors have been dancing a little jig lately because of some legal victories, but they’ve got a long way to go down litigation road, writes Therese Poletti.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

As the 2010 second-quarter earnings season wraps up, accounting sleuths are once again scouring the latest reports for disconnects between what company executives are telling investors and what the numbers are saying.
See full story.

NewsWatch: U.S. stock market to continue balancing act

By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Russian and Turkish stocks were standouts among their emerging-market rivals in July, helping push the investment class to its best gain in four months as panic over European debt loads subsided and as China’s economy expanded, albeit at a slower pace.

The MSCI Barra Emerging Markets Index, which tracks stock performances in 21 countries, climbed 8% this month, its strongest gain since notching a similar advance in March. Those performances were the best since a nearly 11% jump in July 2009.

“Since we hit this low and bottomed back in May, the technicals have been steadily improving and have been in stronger positions coming out of that major correction,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, in a telephone interview.

“We’ve had nice reactions to those bear markets,” which had been seen in a number of countries including Russia, he added. China’s Shanghai index in May also dropped into what’s known as a bear market, or a tumble of 20% off recent highs.
Read previous story about global bear markets.

Of the MSCI index’s country constituents, Brazil, on the last trading day of the month, emerged as the top performer, with a 10.8% advance. Russian stocks rose than 10% and Chinese stocks gained 10%. Turkey’s market ended up more than 9%.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the index
/quotes/comstock/13*!eem/quotes/nls/eem
(EEM
41.40,
+0.20,
+0.49%)
, jumped 10.9% this month.
Read about fund investors’ attraction to emerging markets this year.

While all of the MSCI EM Index’s constituents finished higher in July, Morocco’s market was the weakest advancer, with a slim gain of about 0.1%, followed by a 1% rise for India and a 1.6% increase in the Philippines.

The key EM index had been in a slump in recent months. It slipped 0.9% in June, extending a 9.2% slide in May.

China sets the tone

Russia’s market made one of the most dramatic comebacks since the spring. Its dollar-denominated RTS stock index rose 10.7% this month.

For the commodity-rich Russian market, the “China story is an important one,” as the country drives a global infrastructure buildout that’s been key for other commodity producers, including countries in the Middle East, Chile and Brazil,” according to John Derrick, portfolio manager of U.S. Global Investors’ Eastern European Fund
/quotes/comstock/10r!eurox
(EUROX
9.12,
-0.11,
-1.19%)
.

The fund has $372 million in assets under management, and Russia is its most heavily weighted country, at 52.94%.

“People were concerned that China was tightening and at risk for a hard landing, with growth slowing to 5% to 6%,” Derrick said during a telephone interview. “Now expectations are that China will engineer that soft landing, with about 8% growth for the rest of the year.”

China, according to government statements in the past week, doesn’t expect an economic slowdown to result in a “double-dip” recession, but it will continue with stimulus spending to support the economy.
Read about China’s economic expectations.

Brazil’s stock market is also heavily weighted by shares in companies providing natural resources, including Vale SA
/quotes/comstock/13*!vale/quotes/nls/vale
(VALE
27.80,
+0.24,
+0.87%)
, the world’s largest provider of iron ore. Vale counts China as a top customer, and China last year became Brazil’s biggest trading partner.

Emerging Markets Report: Emerging markets, on healing path, climb in July

By MarketWatch

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

BP PLC Chief Executive Tony Hayward appears to be on his way out of the troubled oil company even as efforts resume to permanently kill the blown-out well that has been pouring crude into the Gulf of Mexico since late April.
See full story.

European markets may welcome stress test results

Test results likely to inspire opening gains on Monday, even if the credibility and rigor of the tests continue to generate controversy.
See full story.

Second quarter gets no respect

The second quarter is getting no respect. Only a few weeks ago, the quarter was strutting along the beach. Now even economists are kicking sand in its face.
See full story.

Private sector must drive economy now: Geithner

Treasury secretary says investment expanding, job growth returning.
See full story.

U.S. stocks upbeat on earnings, cautious on data

The stock market is in a better, yet still risky place as Wall Street readies for an even larger flood of corporate results in the days ahead.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Motorola’s stock has been on a tear lately, but the good times may not last for the smart phone maker, writes Therese Poletti.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

More help is on the way for unemployed homeowners struggling to make their mortgage payments, thanks to funding tucked into the financial reform legislation signed by President Obama on Wednesday.
See full story.

NewsWatch: CEO Hayward may go as BP board meets: reports

By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — International stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds could attract more new money this year over 2009, powered in part by emerging markets holding up better than developed nations in the downturn.

The fund category is just one of two that at the half-year point saw net inflows coming in at a better pace than last year. Balanced funds saw net inflows of $7.5 billion through June 30, compared to $1.2 billion last year. On the flip side, money-market funds have already seen more in net outflows than in any previous full year, while the exodus continues from domestic stock funds, which are on course to match their heavy net outflows of 2009.

Analysts at Robert W. Baird & Co. found that international stock funds and ETFs had $27 billion in net inflows in the first six months of the year, after seeing net flows of $53 billion in 2009.

The most recent flows also suggest that appetites for U.S. stocks haven’t increased — the category saw net outflows of $4.8 billion in June.

“People are looking around for low correlation,” to the U.S. stock market, said Laura Thurow, director of mutual funds at Baird, referring to investments that don’t move in synch with U.S. equities.

“In their flows heyday, people were investing in international stocks as broad diversifier, but it’s pretty significant that [the majority of international this year] have been into emerging markets [as] emerging markets have held up better,” Thurow added.

So far this year, emerging markets are down about 6% compared to the developed countries’ loss of 12%, she said. But while investors may be reacting to better performance, Thurow suggested the inflows are also due to what’s seen as a better outlook for emerging markets countries.

“They don’t have a lot of sovereign debt, and with the domestic growth concerns in the U.S., people are seeing better growth [potential] in emerging markets,” she said.

Alternative options

Commodities and alternatives funds and ETFs also benefited from the anti-U.S. stock sentiment among investors.

Commodities funds saw net inflows of $13 billion in the year’s first six months, while alternatives funds — Baird adopted categorizations used by investment researcher Morningstar Inc. — saw net inflows of $15 billion. In 2009, commodities and alternatives funds saw net inflows of $36 billion and $39 billion, respectively.

The flow picture for U.S. stock funds and ETFs is the reverse, with the category seeing $19 billion of net outflows in the first six months, though that’s running at a slightly better pace than last year’s total net outflows of $40.5 billion. Thurow said that the most of this year’s net outflows, about $16.5 billion, were from mutual funds rather than ETFs.

The other category seeing heavy outflows was money-market funds, which saw nearly $490 billion in net outflows in the first six months, already outpacing 2009’s flows. Money-market funds saw net outflows of about $360 billion last year.

“The year-to-date net outflows are 15% of 2009 year-end assets,” said Thurow. “[By comparison] net outflows in 2009 were 10.7% of 2008 year-end assets, but before that flows had typically been in the 5% of assets range, either up or down.”

What’s worrying for the fund industry is that while some of this money has gone to other funds — taxable bond funds saw about $135 billion in net inflows after inflows of about $320 last year, and municipal bond funds saw net inflows of $20.8 billion compared to $75.5 billion in 2009 — most of it seems to have left the industry altogether, whether into bank accounts, certificates of deposit or used for spending in lean times.

Thurow attributed the increase in money coming into balanced funds as partly due to the growth of target-date funds in retirement portfolios, in some cases as a default investment option. She added that the one-stop nature of balanced funds may also be driving their popularity.

“Risk-based asset allocation funds are becoming more popular as investors are looking for an easy way to get a diversified portfolio,” said Thurow. “They can often get better diversification in an asset allocation fund than in three or four individual mutual funds.”

Sam Mamudi is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.

FundWatch: Emerging markets’ outperformance draws investors

By MarketWatch

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

The U.S. stock market is likely to begin the new week in a less-than-calm state, with investors veering between hope and despair after a slew of disappointing economic reports and a mixed burst of quarterly earnings reports.
See full story.

Market timing scores with tense investors

Volatile stock markets have left investor confidence in tatters. Now some say it’s time to accept the turmoil and adopt more dynamic trading strategies.
See full story.

Stocks to watch Monday: TI, Halliburton, Hasbro

Texas Instruments Inc., Halliburton Co., Hasbro Inc. and Deltal Airlines are among the companies whose share are expected to see active trading in Monday’s session.
See full story.

The week’s biggest winning and losing stocks

Weyerhaeuser fared best, while Lincoln National did the worst among S&P 500 stocks for the week ended July 15.
See full story.

Austerity cloud hangs over Farnborough

Government austerity measures are threatening some of the aerospace and defense industries’ most lucrative programs.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

In the young but fast-growing market for tablet computers, a market propelled by the force of Apple Inc.’s popular iPad, two of the biggest players from the PC’s heyday are mostly standing on the sidelines, writes Therese Poletti.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Deciding to buy a smart phone is the easy part. With dozens of models on the market — add one more after Motorola’s Droid X went on sale Thursday — picking your perfect phone requires hours of research on countless details.
See full story.

NewsWatch: U.S. stocks look for footing as earnings pour in

By MarketWatch

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

The U.S. stock market’s recent gains will be put to the test in the coming week as investors digest a torrent of major earnings and data, which may further mute hopes of economic recovery.
See full story.

2010 investment ideas that hit — and missed

The old market adage to ’sell in May and go away’ sure has a nice ring to it nowadays, with U.S. stocks posting double-digit losses since their late April peak.
See full story.

Stocks to watch Monday: Alcoa, Novellus

Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trading in Monday’s session as earning season kicks off are Alcoa Inc., CSX Corp. and Novellus Systems Inc.
See full story.

Anadarko best, Family Dollar worst stocks for week

Energy and financials stocks were among the top gainers in the S&P 500 Index this week, with retail stocks landing at both the top and bottom of the index.
See full story.

Obama promises help for combat veterans

President says he’ll make it easier to get treatment for post-traumatic stress disorders.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

It’s high time for Apple Inc. to try and fix its corporate culture of arrogance, writes Therese Poletti.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Losing a job is a scary prospect for families during a recession, but there’s a less-noticed problem that also hurts workers: stagnating wages.
See full story.

NewsWatch: U.S. stocks to test gains in debut earning week

By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market’s recent gains will be put to the test in the coming week as investors digest a torrent of major earnings and data, which may further mute hopes of economic recovery.

While second-quarter earnings are expected to increase at a decent pace, the tone of company outlooks is more likely to provide a telling direction for the market.

“Corporate guidance should be conservative in general because of lack of visibility,” said Sean Kraus, chief investment officer at CitizensTrust. “There’s going to have to be a re-tempering of expectations. People really did think we’d have a robust recovery.”

Late Monday, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!aa/quotes/nls/aa
(AA
10.94,
+0.22,
+2.05%)
kicks off the start to earnings season, followed later in the week by Intel Corp.
/quotes/comstock/15*!intc/quotes/nls/intc
(INTC
20.24,
+0.14,
+0.70%)
, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!amd/quotes/nls/amd
(AMD
7.34,
-0.03,
-0.41%)
, Google Inc.
/quotes/comstock/15*!goog/quotes/nls/goog
(GOOG
467.49,
+10.93,
+2.39%)
, and General Electric Co.
/quotes/comstock/13*!ge/quotes/nls/ge
(GE
14.95,
+0.12,
+0.81%)
, along with a slew of banks including J.P. Morgan & Chase
/quotes/comstock/13*!jpm/quotes/nls/jpm
(JPM
38.85,
+0.69,
+1.81%)
, Citigroup Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!c/quotes/nls/c
(C
4.04,
+0.07,
+1.76%)
, and Bank of America Corp.
/quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac
(BAC
15.11,
+0.25,
+1.68%)
.

Coming off the first quarter, investors had fairly high expectations concerning the pace of economic recovery, Kraus said, but they may have to settle for a 2% economic growth rather than 3%.

“In the short-term, this summer, we need to be fairly cautious, and be very cautious this earnings season to take good news with a grain of salt,” Kraus said. “When you see bigger companies like Intel reporting we’re going to get a better view of what corporate America is seeing.”

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx
(SPX
1,078,
+7.71,
+0.72%)
to rise 27% compared to the same quarter last year, with materials, energy and technology stocks leading the charge.
Read full preview for second-quarter earnings.

Along with earnings, the week will see the release of data such as U.S. retail sales, the international trade balance, inventories, industrial production, the consumer price index, and consumer sentiment. See Economic Calendar.

U.S. stocks have rallied over the week shortened by Monday’s July 4 holiday, recouping much of the losses booked over the seven prior losing sessions. Volume over the past week was light, however, raising suspicions that gains could fall apart during earnings season.

“Over the holiday weekend, the market caught its breath after reports did not show signs of a double-dip recession,” said Channing Smith, co-manager of Capital Advisors Growth Fund.

“We’ll see if this light-volume week was the calm before the storm. Expect much more volume this week because of data. Next week, the market is going to be bombarded with data.”

New York Stock Exchange Composite volume on Friday was 3.6 billion shares, or about 70% of its 30-day average.

Fireworks after the Fourth

On Friday, the Dow
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
(DJIA
10,198,
+59.04,
+0.58%)
rose 0.6% to close at 10,198, for a 5.3% gain on the week. The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.7% at 1078 for a weekly gain of 5.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index
/quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp
(COMP
2,196,
+21.05,
+0.97%)
advanced 1% to close at 2,196 for a gain of 5% for the week.

In an overly bearish and oversold market, Smith said any shred of good news was able to spark a rally in the past week. On Wednesday, bank stocks rallied when State Street Corp.
/quotes/comstock/13*!stt/quotes/nls/stt
(STT
37.21,
+0.83,
+2.28%)
issued a second-quarter outlook that was well above analysts’ estimates. Next week, investors will have to be more selective. Smith said the market can handle slower growth if outlooks over earnings season are more cautious.

One of the underperforming sectors this earnings season may end up being the financials sector, which has been buffeted by bank reform legislation. This quarter’s bank earnings may be muddied by comparison with last year’s accounting. Also, next week bank stocks may come under pressure if the U.S. Senate votes on passage of the Dodd-Frank bank reform bill.

“Banks are not going to have such good earnings because last year they reversed mark-to-market losses,” said Albert Meyer, Portfolio Manager of the Mirzam Capital Appreciation Fund. “Manufacturing, the rest of the sectors will report decent earnings to counteract that.”

Despite shaky consumer confidence, Meyer points to high CEO confidence and economic indicators as presaging a good, but not great, earnings season. “It’ll be strange if numbers come out low next week,” he said.

Wallace Witkowski is a MarketWatch news editor in San Francisco.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks to test gains in debut earning week

By MarketWatch

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

The U.S. stock market will begin the holiday-shortened week in a precarious state, with the third quarter off to a rotten start and the S&P 500 Index perilously close to breaching 1,000.
See full story.

Canadian stocks close in the red

The Toronto exchange continues its losing streak from last week, when its benchmark index declined more than 4%.
See full story.

European shares end lower, but BP gains

European shares close slightly lower Monday after struggling for direction amid lingering worries about growth, although oil giant BP PLC manage to gain ground.
See full story.

British shares end lower: BP gains

British shares end lower Monday, with declines in miners and banks offsetting gains for oil giant BP.
See full story.

Stocks to Watch Tuesday Apple, Allergan

Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trading early next week are Apple Inc. and Allergan.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Even in the current market slump, having one of the world’s top smart phone makers carry a valuation similar to that of a battered oil company or car manufacturer is — shall we say — unusual.
See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

The time has come for the nation to face some facts and, according to Republican Rep. John Boehner, the House minority leader, that means fixing Social Security by hiking the normal retirement age to 70 for future retirees, from the current 67.
See full story.

NewsWatch: U.S. stocks to begin new week in vulnerable spot

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market will begin the holiday-shortened week in a precarious state, with the third quarter off to a rotten start and the S&P 500 Index perilously close to breaching 1,000 for the first time since September.

“We bulls can’t catch a break,” said Linda Duessel, equity-market strategist for Federated Investors.

The optimists almost had their way late Friday, with the major indexes shedding their daylong losses in the final 30 minutes of trading. Then just ahead of the closing bell, they lapsed lower again to top off Wall Street’s worst week since May 7 — the week of the so-called “flash crash.”

The past week’s slide came as downtrodden investors mulled the state of the economic recovery with domestic worries, particularly the high count of unemployed Americans, overriding Europe’s debt trouble and slowing growth in China.

In the week ahead, only one S&P 500 company offers quarterly results, with discount retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!fdo/quotes/nls/fdo
(FDO
38.62,
-0.13,
-0.34%)
reporting on Wednesday.

Like earnings, economic data in coming days are limited, with the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday releasing its index on nonmanufacturing activity for June, and the government slated to release weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday.

U.S. stock markets are closed Monday for the July 4 holiday.

When they return, investors will be assessing their positions in the wake of stocks’ dismal start to the third quarter. Some analysts say the pullback suggests the market is pricing in a double-dip recession.

“Stocks are pricing a major deceleration in economic growth and revising down the outlook for corporate profits,” according to Nick Kalivas, an analyst at MF Global.

Weekly wrap

Down for seventh consecutive session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
(DJIA
9,686,
-46.05,
-0.47%)
on Friday fell 46.05 points, or 0.5%, to 9,686.48, leaving it with a weekly drop of 4.5%.

The S&P 500
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx
(SPX
1,023,
-4.79,
-0.47%)
shed 4.79 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,022.58, off 5% from the prior Friday’s close.

The Nasdaq Composite Index
/quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp
(COMP
2,092,
-9.57,
-0.46%)
declined 9.57 points, or 0.5%, to 2,091.79, off 5.9% for the week.

The last such Monday-through-Friday slide happened from Oct. 6 through Oct. 10, 2008, when the S&P 500 tumbled just more than 18% in one week, said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s.

That October 2008 retreat came at the peak of the financial crisis, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
/quotes/comstock/11i!lehmq
(LEHMQ
0.07,
+0.00,
+2.53%)
Credit costs spiked, there also was “something about mortgages, liquidity, shorts and financial institutions,” said Silverblatt of the 2008 losing stretch.

Last week’s retreat came as economic reports illustrated weakening growth in manufacturing, an unexpected jump in jobless claims and a drop in home sales, all of which fed fears that the recovery is stalling.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks to begin new week in vulnerable spot